Earnings Season Bloodbath 🤔: NFLX Up First

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April 17, 2026

Good morning traders, Jeff Bishop here.

Well, we survived another week.

Markets are waking up Friday with a familiar tone: cautiously bullish, but not without a few cracks showing beneath the surface.

Let’s get you caught up.

Where Things Stand (Premarket)

Futures are modestly higher to start the day:

  • S&P 500 futures: +0.2–0.3%

  • Dow futures: +0.3–0.4%

  • Nasdaq: slightly mixed

This follows another strong session yesterday, with the S&P 500 continuing its push toward record territory. ()

Volatility is still relatively contained, and yields have eased slightly, with the 10-year hovering just above ~4.3%. ()

The Big Driver: Geopolitics → Oil → Risk Sentiment

The dominant story remains the potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict.

Markets are leaning into optimism:

  • A possible peace framework is emerging

  • Oil is pulling back (Brent now below $100)

  • Risk appetite is expanding globally

This is the entire ballgame right now. The market has rallied aggressively—up roughly 10–11% in just a few weeks—on the belief that the worst-case scenario is off the table. ()

But here’s the nuance:


Oil hasn’t collapsed… it’s just come off the highs. That tells you risk hasn’t disappeared—it’s just being repriced.

Earnings Season is Now the Next Catalyst

We’re officially transitioning from macro-driven markets → earnings-driven markets.

Early read:

  • Expectations are still elevated

  • Guidance will matter more than the prints

And we already have our first notable casualty…

Premarket Standout: Netflix Gets Hit

Netflix is down ~9–10% premarket after disappointing forward guidance. 

This is important—not because of Netflix specifically, but because it reinforces a key theme:

Good results aren’t enough anymore. The market wants confirmation of continued growth.

This is classic late-stage rally behavior.

Under the Surface: Not Everything is Confirming

While indexes look strong, there are a few subtle divergences:

  • Nasdaq is lagging slightly this morning

  • Bond yields remain elevated (not exactly risk-on confirmation)

  • Volatility ticked up slightly overnight

  • Individual names are seeing sharper moves (both directions)

Translation: This is still a selective market, not a broad, clean breakout.

The Bigger Picture 

Right now, the market is balancing three forces:

  1. Geopolitical relief (bullish)

  2. Sticky inflation + higher yields (bearish)

  3. Earnings expectations (the swing factor)

If peace headlines hold → upside continues.
If earnings disappoint → this rally gets tested quickly.

Final Thoughts

This feels like a market that wants to go higher—but needs to be validated.

We’ve gone from:

  • “Sell everything” (just weeks ago)…

to

  • “Buy the dip aggressively”

That shift happened fast.

Now comes the harder part: proving the rally was justified.

Stay selective, stay disciplined, and don’t confuse momentum with certainty.

To YOUR success,

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