These factors are driving the markets right now

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June 16, 2025

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Good morning all and happy Monday.

A quick congratulations goes out to all my Atomic Trades members for smashing CRML over the weekend. Right now CRML is gapping up about 15 to 20% as we trade in the $2.30s to $2.40 range. I am still watching this for a possible run at $3s later this week.

Going into this week there will be a lot of data and key pieces of news to watch that will shape how I trade at Market Navigator for my morning SPY trade of the day. 

Here are a few things I’ll be watching: 

1. Middle East geopolitical tensions

  • Strikes between Israel and Iran sparked a ~7–11% surge in oil prices on June 13, triggering risk-off sentiment across equity futures and lifting safe‑haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar

  • Airline and travel-related stocks sold off sharply, while energy and defense names outperformed amid escalating uncertainty

2. Fed policy outlook

  • Softer-than-expected May U.S. inflation data rekindled hopes for rate cuts—but the Fed is likely to hold rates steady at 4.25–4.50% this week, with fresh cuts now expected later in 2025 (perhaps September)

  • Investors are closely watching the Fed’s updated forecast "dot plot" and any signals from Chair Powell at the upcoming June meeting.

3. Rotation toward defensives

  • Tech, consumer discretionary, and travel sectors have underperformed following the surge in oil prices and uncertainty, while energy, defense, and utilities have rallied as classic defensive plays .

Market Outlook

  • Upside potential is being capped by elevated oil and persistent geopolitics, even as soft inflation fuels rate cut optimism

  • Analysts’ year-end targets for the S&P 500 range from ~6,100 to 6,500, depending on trade, inflation, and geopolitical developments

  • With volatility elevated, many strategists are favoring balanced portfolios emphasizing energy, defense, utilities, and financials while remaining cautious with tech and discretionary sectors 

Bottom line:

A potent mix of rising oil prices driven by geopolitical conflict, resurgent inflation concerns, and a shifting Fed timeline is keeping markets on edge this week. Investors should brace for volatility around the Fed meeting and G‑7 summit, while defensive rotation continues.

Don’t forget, if you’re struggling with trade ideas, then joining me at 3pm today is essential!

See you there

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