This US-China agreement will benefit markets

The Leading Sector Propelling the SPY at the Moment

June 27, 2025

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The trade framework signed today between the U.S. and China—building on the Geneva and London accords from May and June—focuses on two main components: expediting rare-earth exports to the U.S. and suspending the escalation of tariffs.

How this helps markets

1. Relief for tech & industrials

  • Rare-earth access: China will accelerate export licenses for rare-earth minerals and magnets, easing bottlenecks in industries like EVs, aerospace, defense, and semiconductors. U.S. tech and auto firms directly benefit from more reliable supplies.

  • Semiconductor lift: With raw materials flowing, U.S. equipment makers (e.g. Applied Materials, Lam Research) may see demand improve as Chinese foundries seek alternatives..

2. Tariff truce stabilizes sentiment

  • Pause on tariff spikes: Both sides agree not to further escalate tariffs over the next 90 days (until early July), providing breathing room .

  • Headline relief: Markets react positively to the reduced rhetoric and clearer trade outlook, supporting equities and weakening the dollar .

3. Strategic de-escalation

  • Damaged confidence reset: Investors who priced in continued escalation now see risks easing; this supports more constructive global risk-taking .

  • Sector rotation: Capital flows may pivot from safe havens into cyclical and tech sectors poised to benefit from supply-chain normalization.

Today’s deal also makes me think a July rate cut could now be on the table, especially if PCE data comes in line or better than expected.

Right now I am bullish all major tech stocks and am looking for SPY to make a run at $620

Which market do you think will benefit most from the deal?

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Cheers

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