What I’m Watching for on SPY This Week

How Are Markets Setting Up This Week

September 30, 2025

Header

Jeff Williams' Complete Trading System Revealed

 For those who want more, October 1st - 10am ET

Good morning traders,

Markets have been very strong lately as we once again push up near all time highs, but will it last? Here is a breakdown of a few possibilities we could see this week.

Current Sentiment & Themes

Tailwinds:

  • The market is watching upcoming U.S. jobs data closely — a “soft but not collapsing” print could reinforce the path for more Fed rate cuts.

  • The Fed already cut rates 25 bps earlier, and markets expect further cuts later in the year.

  • Some strategists remain upbeat about equities, especially in a non-recessionary environment with easing policy.

Headwinds / Risks:

  • A stronger-than-expected labor report could cause the Fed to pause or delay further easing, which may spook markets.

  • The looming possibility of a U.S. government shutdown is creating uncertainty. That could delay data releases or disrupt confidence.

  • Valuations are somewhat elevated: the S&P 500 is trading at a premium relative to historical averages, leaving less cushion for disappointment.

  • Inflation risks, and how resilient the economy remains, are wildcards. A bounce in inflation or surprising strength in growth could push yields higher and pressure equities. 

What Might Happen This Week — Scenarios

Here are a few plausible paths for how the market could play out:

Scenario

Likely Drivers

Market Reaction

Moderate upside / continuation of rally

Jobs data is soft but not weak; Fed remains dovish; no major shock from politics

Equities extend gains, especially in rate-sensitive / cyclical names

Sideways / consolidation

Mixed data; markets digest recent moves; profit-taking

Volatility increases; markets may chop around as investors wait for direction

Pullback / risk-off move

Strong jobs / inflation print; Fed signals a pause; government shutdown escalates

Rotation to defensive names; some weakness in growth / tech sectors

Given technical momentum and positive sentiment, a mild extension of upside is possible early in the week — but I think consolidation or a modest pullback is fairly likely, especially later, barring a big catalyst.

How do you think the stock market will perform this week?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

One strategist from Charles Schwab recently wrote that while the trend is still bullish, next week may be somewhat “slightly bearish” as some profit-taking or "digestion" sets in. Schwab Brokerage

Jeff Williams

🥂Haven’t joined RB Special Events yet?  Change that by subscribing HERE.

Questions or concerns about our products? Contact [email protected] / 1-800-380-7072

DISCLAIMER: To more fully understand any Ragingbull.com, LLC ("RagingBull") subscription, website, application or other service ("Services"), please review our full disclaimer located at https://ragingbull.com/disclaimer.

*Sponsored Content: If you purchase anything through a link in this email other than RagingBull (RB) services, you should assume that we have an affiliate relationship with the company providing the product that you purchase, and that we will be paid in some way. RB is not responsible for any content hosted on affiliate’s sites and it is the affiliate’s responsibility to ensure compliance with applicable laws. We recommend that you do your own independent research before purchasing anything. While we believe in the companies we form affiliate relationships with, please don’t spend any money on these products unless you believe they will help you achieve your goals.

FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY; NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Any RagingBull Service offered is for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be construed as a securities-related offer or solicitation, or be relied upon as personalized investment advice. RagingBull strongly recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.

RESULTS PRESENTED NOT TYPICAL OR VERIFIED. RagingBull Services may contain information regarding the historical trading performance of RagingBull owners or employees, and/or testimonials of non-employees depicting profitability that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons voluntarily providing the testimonial. However, trading results of third parties have NOT been tracked or verified and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and the results presented in this communication are NOT TYPICAL. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, market dynamics and the amount of capital deployed. Investing in securities is speculative and carries a high degree of risk; you may lose some, all, or possibly more than your original investment.

RAGINGBULL IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER. Neither RagingBull nor any of its owners or employees is registered as a securities broker-dealer, broker, investment advisor(IA), or IA representative with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authority, or any self-regulatory organization.

WE MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED. RagingBull has not been paid directly or indirectly by the issuer of any security mentioned in the Services. However, Ragingbull.com, LLC, its owners, and its employees may purchase, sell, or hold long or short positions in securities of the companies mentioned in this communication.

In the event that any suit or action is instituted as a result of doing business with RagingBull.com, LLC and/or its affiliates or if any suit or action is necessary to enforce or interpret these Terms of Service, RagingBull.com, LLC shall be entitled to recover attorneys’ fees, costs and disbursements in addition to any other relief to which it may be entitled.