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What’s Driving The Markets This Week
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Good morning, happy Monday and welcome to another week. I am hoping to go for another perfect week of trading for my morning SPY trade of the day and the details below are what I’ll use to help guide me in what should be a very important and volatile week.
Key Themes for the Week Ahead
1. Tariffs & Inflation Risks
The Trump administration’s looming tariffs—35% on Canada and broad import taxes starting August 1—are fueling concerns that inflation (especially in commodities like copper) may rise and delay Fed rate cuts
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warns markets are underestimating the chance of further rate hikes (40–50% chance vs ~20% priced in) if inflation persists
2. June Inflation Stats (US & Global)
Tuesday (July 15): U.S. headlines CPI & core CPI (MoM) are due. Consensus expects ~0.3% MoM (vs 0.1% in May), with June YoY CPI rising to ~2.6–2.7%
Other global releases: China Q2 GDP, U.K. CPI, Eurozone sentiment surveys. Key for central bank outlooks
3. Earnings Kickoff
Big banks (JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman, Citigroup) report early in the week—markets will parse profit margins and impacts of tariffs
Midweek sees Netflix, TSMC, ASML, J&J, Novartis, GE Aerospace, PepsiCo, 3M, AmEx, Schwab, and more
Analysts anticipate muted earnings growth (~4.8% YOY)—slowest since Q4 2023—and margin compression
4. Macro Data Beyond CPI
5. Tech & AI Resilience
Despite macro uncertainty, AI-driven tech giants (Nvidia, TSMC) continue to drive markets, with Nvidia hitting the $4 trillion market‑cap mark
6. Summer Volatility Risk
What to Watch
Tuesday (Jul 15): June CPI/Core CPI—place to focus on inflation trajectory.
Early-week: Q2 bank earnings for rate‑sensitive insights.
Mid-week: Tech earnings to assess whether AI hype holds.
Macro prints: Retail, housing, PPI for broader context.
Markets will likely react sharply if inflation surprises, earnings disappoint, or tariffs escalate—any sign of sticky inflation could shift Fed expectations.
📌 Summary
Markets begin the week reacting to tariffs and trade risks, watching for inflation that could challenge Fed easing. Earnings—especially from banks and big tech—serve as the first real test of how businesses are coping with higher costs and shifting demand. Macro data mid‑week will round out the picture, with volatility a constant risk in this season.
Which factor matters most for this week’s market direction? |
Cheers
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