When will our first rate cut be, you ask 🤨

Tons of action in the chat room today

August 07, 2025

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Thursday’s FREE CHAT ROOM lineup (Eastern Time):

  • 9 - 10 AM: Jason Bond – Premarket scans, small cap gap trades & new SAJ trades

  • 10 - 11AM: Jeff Williams – Market Navigator SPY Trade of the Day (Part 2)

  • 12 - 1 PM: Kenny Glick – “The Warlock’s” LIVE trades

  • 1 - 2PM: Special Guest – Breakout Multiplier

  • 2 - 3PM: Jason Bond – $2k - $100K Challenge w/large cap stocks

  • 3 - 4 PM: Jeff Williams – Swing Trades, Momentum Setups, Breakouts

That is a packed day đź‘Ź

Don’t miss out on all the FREE live trading action in the Market Master’s room - click the button below to take your seat 👇

Good morning all, 

Markets are looking to push higher here but we also have the Jobless Claims report to watch at 8:30am. This report will give us even more information about a possible rate cut from the Fed which the markets are eagerly anticipating. 

Market Expectations: When Will the Fed Cut Rates?

September 2025 Is the Leading Candidate

  • According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there's now a 93.2% probability investors expect a Fed rate cut in September 2025.

  • This sentiment is reinforced by a weakening labor market: July’s job report showed only 73,000 new jobs, much fewer than expected, pushing the FedWatch probability to around 82% for September.

Fed Officials Echo Market Concerns

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted increasing signs of economic cooling—particularly slowing consumer spending—and stated that a September rate cut “could be appropriate”. He also highlighted that other Fed officials share this sentiment.

Analysts Offer Cautious Optimism

  • While market odds are high for a September cut, some economists remain hesitant. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America caution that despite the weak jobs data, factors like persistent inflation and resilient consumer spending could delay any move.

In short, markets are overwhelmingly expecting the Fed’s first rate cut to occur in September 2025. That said, voices from within the Fed and Wall Street remain watchful—wary of inflation risks and other economic indicators that could delay policy easing.

That being said, I am mostly looking to play calls here with an occasional put trade idea when it feels markets are TOO HOT, but the trend remains strong so therefore I’ll remain bullish on my SPY trades.

Will the SPY finish UP or Down today?

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What’s on your radar? 

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